Scudetto, Inter calendar, Milan, Naples: the favorite | Bewilderment

Of Mario Sconcerti

Analyzing and interpreting the calendars of the three rivals, the final classification would become this: 1 Inter, 2 Napoli, 3 Milan. The numbers say it, even if the imponderable of football can mess them up at any moment

Who will win the championship? the question that I am asking myself almost everywhere these days, but the reality that I do not have an answer, I can only say Milan, Inter or Napoli. Seriously, nothing more. There are infinite joints. Plus this the first league in which a reference team is missing. You don’t know who will win or who will lose the most. What we think matters little, what will continue to happen matters. One hundred years of figures show that all three leading teams are now within limits to win. The strictest border is that of defeats, it is very dangerous to overcome the five games lost, but on the thirty-first day Milan, Napoli and Inter are within the margin. They are also the same for the number of matches in which they have scored: 27 for Inter (from now on we will take it as a reminder that they have one less match), 27 for Napoli, 28 for Milan.

A calendar to be interpreted

How do you get out of it then? Only with cheering? I would say that cheering is an excellent point of view, but we should be able to remain objective. And this is not easy. There is another possible start, concerns the calendar, that is, the matches that remain for the three leading teams. But here too there are many dangers. I’ll give you an example: on the last day Inter will play at home with Sampdoria and Napoli will go to Spezia. They are two opponents that are equal, quite easy. But if Spezia and Sampdoria had to play for salvation that day, they would become two complex games. Milan will instead go to Reggio Emilia against Sassuolo, a delicate match, but Sassuolo at home only beat Salernitana, Venice, Lazio, Fiorentina and Spezia. He plays much better away where he has beaten Milan, Juve and Verona. So I tried to do something different, nothing that can eliminate chance and personal opinion but that at least limits their power. I try to explain myself.

The handicap method

The first important thing is to build two groups of teams, those to meet at home and those to meet away. I gave each team a handicap, that is, a score that captures their possible performance. Example: without Juve, the most difficult teams to face away from home are Fiorentina, Roma and Lazio. To this we will give a handicap 5. To the team judged easier 1.
The two groups of teams with relative handicaps are these.
Teams to face away from home

Handicap 5 – Rome, Lazio, Fiorentina
3.5 – Verona, Turin, Atalanta
3 – Cagliari
2.5 – Sassuolo, Udinese, Bologna, Genoa
2 – Spezia, Empoli, Sampdoria
1 – Venice, Salernitana
Teams to meet at home

Handicap 4– Rome and Lazio
3.5 – Atalanta
3 – Verona, Sassuolo, Fiorentina
2.5 – Turin, Udinese, Bologna
2 – Genoa, Cagliari, Empoli
1 – Spezia, Sampdoria
0.5 – Salernitana, Venice

The explanation of handicaps

* Fiorentina are the team to have won the most at home, ten games, on par with Inter. Rome and Lazio are at 9. Lazio and Fiorentina, always after Inter, are the teams that have scored the most at home: Lazio 35 goals, Fiorentina 33. That is why they have a high handicap for those who play at their home. The away score drops.

* Atalanta have the same score at home and away, even if they have won 10 away games and just 4 at home. In ten games, their performance has dropped considerably in general, only 9 points, 6 at home and 3 away.

* Sassuolo have a higher handicap away from home where they have beaten Verona, Juventus and Milan. At home he has only won 5 times, Fiorentina as the best opponent. He will meet AC Milan in Reggio Emilia on the last day.

* Verona, Turin and even Cagliari are tough teams to meet in their home. While the trip to Genoa has become quite easy, Sampdoria side: this year they lost nine times to Marassi. On the other hand, I kept Blessin’s Genoa, which is confirming itself as an organized team, higher than its ranking, not an easy opponent. Both Milan and Napoli will meet him. And also Mazzarri’s Cagliari, especially at home.

* I consider only Genoa, Cagliari and Sampdoria in the running for salvation: they have 22, 25 and 29 points. Above thirty are safe for me.

The comparison

Now let’s take the calendar of Milan, Napoli, Inter and apply the handicap to their opponents. Away games are capitalized. The handicap is the score next to the opposing team. There is another important notice. For each point of difference in the current ranking, a handicap point is assigned. So one more to Napoli and from one to four to Inter according to the result of the recovery. Here’s what comes out.


32 TURIN 3.5
33 Genoa 2
34 LAZIO 5
35 Fiorentina 3
36 VERONA 3.5
37 Atalanta 3.5
AC Milan’s total handicap value 23


32 Fiorentina 3
33 Rome 4
35 Sassuolo 3
36 TURIN 3.5
37 Genoa 2
38 SPICE 2
The total handicap value of Napoli 19.5

32 Verona 3
33 SPICE 2
34 Rome 4
35 UDINESE 2.5
36 Empoli 2
38 Sampdoria 1
Inter’s total handicap value 17.5

The conclusion

Starting from the current gaps, this would lead to a sensational result. The ranking would become this: 1 Inter, 2 Naples, 3 Milan. All but science, of course, but it has good roots in analyzable data. The calendar is an objective test, the classification too. The judgments on the teams are now quite tested. a good start to answering the original question. It goes without saying that a penalty kick, a feat of any one of the hundreds of players involved, or simply a wrong evaluation, is enough to start all over again. But we already knew this.

April 5, 2022 (change April 5, 2022 | 15:52)

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